Ethereum has seen ups and downs this month, with the increase reaching nearly 11.3% in one day and the decrease being 10.5% in one day. In such an unexpected market, why are people getting bearish for Ethereum?
And even if so, what are the chances that Ethereum will actually keep falling?
Investors want Ethereum to fall?
Not all, obviously. The observation comes from Deribit’s put and call contract data. Accordingly, the trading volume of puts options was up to 31,000, which amounted to more than 90 million US dollars. These options are mainly geared towards Ethereum reaching $ 2700.
Since Deribit now accounts for almost 96% of all open interests in the options market, it can be viewed as almost the entire market opinion.
This observation comes despite the fact that the options market has been bullish for over a month. The spread of implied volatility (IV) to realized volatility (RV) signals this, as the IV has replaced RV for some time.
And since the implied volatility at the money (ATM) reaches over 100% for every 1 month, 3 months and 6 months, the market can expect some price fluctuations in positive directions.
There is also a 60% dominance of calls options for contracts that expire on October 1, where investors are aiming for Ethereum to hit $ 3,200.
But then again, there is also a 40% puts dominance that expires on October 1st, in addition to the puts that expire on October 8th.
What are the chances that Ethereum will fall?
Nothing can be said for sure, but there is a fair chance a price decline will take place. For example, according to the probability index, there is a 54% chance that Ethereum will drop to $ 2,700 in October.
If the market wants to reduce that 54% probability and avoid a decline, some buying pressure is required. The price over the week has already fallen by 12.3%. If you look at the RSI and the SAR movement, no immediate trend reversal is guaranteed either.